Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Quinito Henson Is Overrated (At Least as an NBA Analyst)

I got this post in my personal blog. I wrote this at the time when this blog was inexistent (last Saturday). However, now that I have decided to put up this blog, I believe this is the appropriate place to post this.


A few days ago I had coffee with my dad and my brother and the three of us had a conversation on who is the best Filipino NBA analyst we have right now. "Quinito Henson," my dad quickly and unhesitatingly pointed out. I rolled my eyes at his answer and then said "Mine is Bill Velasco."

My dad and brother then looked at me enigmatically, begging to explain to them why I picked the Half-Brit over the guy people consider as the best contemporary sports analyst in the country. I took a sip off my coffee and then blurted out that Quinito Henson is overrated. I meant it. He's overrated, at least as an NBA analyst, and I'm willing to stick to my convictions.

That's what brings us to this post right now (which is also somewhat a recap of game 1 of the 1st round of the NBA Eastern Conference playoff match up between the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat).

Quinito Henson's column in today's Star (Sunday, April 22) suggested that the Miami Heat would certainly beat the Bulls in their current first round match up in the NBA playoffs. After that, I switched on the TV set, tuned in to Basketball TV, and watched the game between the Bulls and the Heat. Well, what do you know--Bulls win, 96-91.

Henson pointed out that the Bulls are tougher this season albeit he still picked the Heat because of two names: Shaq and Wade. Well, I don't know if he really is a sports analyst or, if in reality, he's just a Heat, or Shaq, or Wade, or Riley fan who happens to write for the sports section of a major newspaper. The thing is, he didn't point any factual or statistical evidence why he picked the Heat over the Bulls. Basically, he just blurted out that Heat will win because they have more experience, apparently because they're older, because the Bulls doesn't have a deep bench, and because they have Shaq and Wade.

Well, I pick the Bulls over the Heat in 6 and I'm backing myself up with stats and facts that Mr. Henson dismissed in his article. Here are my reasons why I'm picking the Bulls over the Heat:

1. Bulls Defensive Personnel #1

Last year Shaq and Wade trounced the Bulls because the Bulls have yet the capacity to match up with the Heat man-for-man defensively. Last year's Bulls team had an athletic, yet a defensive non-factor when it comes to guarding Shaq, in the form of Tyson Chandler. Of course Chandler was great for the Bulls on the rebounding category but his slim, 7-foot, foul-prone frame could never bother Shaq at any given time. Shaq eats those kind of players (Rik Smits, Scott Pollard, Zydrunas Ilgauskus, Vlade Divac, Brad Miller, etc.). They're totally incapable of guarding Shaq, with or without help from their teammates. To the Big Aristotle, they're just foul fodders to aid him in his in-game Free-throw shooting practice, which, after all these years, have yet to help him shoot better from the charity stripe.

This season, the Bulls signed Ben Wallace to a 60 mil, 4-year contract. Big Ben might not be able to handle Shaq one on one but, with help from the other Bulls players, he might be able to contain Shaq just like what he and the rest of the Detroit front liners did in the Pistons-Lakers championship series back in 2004. I guess that's why they're the Number 1 Defensive Team in the League for the season.

2. Bulls Defensive Personnel #2

Last year, only one guy on the Bulls roster had the capacity to keep up with Dwyane Wade and that was Kirk Hinrich. This year, with rookie Thabo Sefalosha in the line-up, they have two great perimeter defending guys that could potentially contain Wade in those crucial stretches in the game that he usually likes to take over. I guess game one proved that point. Wade shot just 7-16 in the game to finish with 21 points--that's a big factor. Remember, this is the playoffs--Wade should be pouring in 30 or more a game this time of the year. And, the fact that Wade admitted in the post-game prescon that Thabo's length really bothered him just proves me right on this one.

3. LUOL DENG

No one from the Heat team could guard this guy. He moves great with or without the ball, he's got great basketball I.Q., he's a hard worker on both the defensive and offensive end and he doesn't force shots and, well I could ramble on and on why Deng is that good of a player but this post would just get longer than it already is so I'm cutting this one already. Fact is, they can't stop Deng because he's not a Carter or a Kobe who thinks he must score and do everything by himself in order for his team to win. Deng knows what it takes to win and that's by working hard and playing his part on the team exceptionally, to trust his teammates with the rest--something that the rest of the Bulls team seem to have realized along with him.

4. Deep Bench

This is what really pissed me off and what cemented my claim that Quinito Henson does not know much about the NBA. Contrary to what he said, the Bulls DO HAVE a deep bench. They have a high quality ten-man rotation that rivals only the Phoenix Suns in the League. Thomas, Sefalosha, Duhon, Nocioni, and Allen. That's a wide array of guys who could defend and score if needed be. Jesus, Henson should WATCH NBA games first before blabbering something about playoff match up predictions on his column as if he is Madam Auring.

5. Home Court Advantage

The Bulls have the best home winning record in the East during the season. They sold out all of their home games. The home crowd would kill for them. The United Center is the best place to play a home basketball game.

*****

What people say about stats being thrown out come playoff time is only half-true. Stats do tell us something (and they help gamblers pick better). They tell us what a team and an individual could consistently do.

The thing is, passion alone can't win playoff games--having the talent to back it up, excellent team coordination and the understanding that you have to sacrifice things in order to achieve your ultimate goal, the championship, is also as important as passion/heart come playoff time. The Bulls have all of those. I'm not claiming that they'll win the championship, what I'm saying is that they are a great team and could win the championship. Nothing's for certain--I just like their chances. And the fact that they're generally a young team but have, in fact, 3 years worth of playoff experience makes that more likely. yes, I am a Bulls fan and I am biased--the stats and facts I just stated are not.

Today, Kirk Hinrich only played 20 min and was generally a non-factor in the game due to foul trouble way before Wade and Shaq got into foul trouble themselves. Still, the Bulls won because of great defensive and offensive plays. It says a lot, don't you think so?

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